Financial Forecasting - Analysis and Modelling

Question: Discuss about the Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling. Answer: Introduction In this report, an attempt is made to analyze the scope and performance of the business of PG. The PG is one of the fastest growing and largest consumer goods company in India. The company was established in the year 1964 and it currently serves 650 million customers in India. The company has presence in different product segments of Beauty, household care segment and many other popular brands. The technological innovations of the product have enabled the company to achieve the market leadership in the majority of the product segments. The company is engaged in the sustainable growth and has been able to create more than 26000 jobs. The main aim of this report is to analyze the performance of the company and to calculate the value of the business in order to make a recommendation the investor about the investment in PG. Corporate Governance The Corporate Governance deals with the interaction between the management, member and the board of directors to ensure that the interests of the stakeholders are protected against the selfish actions of the management. The corporate governance is important to ensure that the measures implemented by the company are employed in such a manner that it fulfills the expectations and aspirations of the stakeholders[1]. The components of the corporate governance are the policies, laws, procedures implemented by the company and the proper utilization of the assets of the company. It can be said that the corporate governance is considered to be at its highest point if the management behaves and functions as long-term investors. The PG has been historically operating with integrity at both the external and internal level. The actions of the company and its employees functions in accordance with the purpose, values and principle of the company. The company is committed to operate responsibility and it is reflected in the financial discipline and corporate governance that have been implemented by the company[2]. The company ensures that the responsibility of observing the corporate governance is shifted to the key employees of the company. The company has issued a standard of corporate governance in the World Business Conduct Manualand every manager is required to abide by the standards provided in the manual. This implementation of the manual puts forward the commitment of the management to conduct the affairs of the company in an ethical manner. This manual of the company was prepared based on principles, values and policies of the company that has helped to form specific standards and guidelines[3]. This ma nual has enabled the employees of the company to make easier connection with the policies and tools of the company. This manual provides the worldwide business conduct standard of the company. The standards are based on the core values of company that are given below: Treating the assets of the company as own assets; The business is conducted based on the long term success in mind; The business to be conducted based on the principle of doing the right thing; The business should be operated based on the letter and spirit of the law; The policy statement, policies related to operation and internal controls followed by the company are provided in the Worldwide Business Conduct Manual. The manual provides specific emphasis on the following: behavior of the employees to be ethical, to ensure compliance with the laws, Maintaining the accurate books of accounts and records of the company; The secrecy of the corporate data is to be maintained; The conflict of interest needs to be avoided; Dealing fairly; fair competition among the competitors; ensuring sage and healthy business practices; protection of the environment; The company has earned its reputation by performing the business operation according to the principles of the manual stated above. Therefore, it can be said that the company has performed ethically and has applied all the principles of successfulcorporate governance[4]. Financial performance The financial performance of the company reflects the operational efficiency or inefficiency of the company.The companies that are operating effectively generally have good financial results. If the company is operating inefficiently then it is reflected in the poor financial performance of the company.Therefore it can be said that financial performance measures the effectiveness with which the business uses its assets for generating revenue. It also represents overall financial health of the company and can be used to compare it with the industry standards for comparative analysis[5]. The company can apply various methods to measure the financial performance of the company. The items like revenue from operation, cash flow from operation and operating income of the business can be used to measure the financial performance of the company. In a company, there are different stakeholderslike creditors, investors, managers and employees. It should be noted that different stakeholders have different indicator of financial performance of the company. The purpose of analyzing the financial performance of the company is to provide the stakeholders a view of the financial performance of the business[6]. The analysis of the income statement, the statement of financial positionand the cash flow of PG is conducted below for providing the financial performance of the business.In this report the Tools and techniques that are used for the performance of the financial statement are given below: Horizontal analysis; Vertical analysis; and Ratio analysis In this report the financial performance of the company will be analyzed based on the trend or horizontal analysis. Horizontal Analysis or trend analysis In the horizontal analysis the financial statement are analyzed for number of years. In this technique the figures of the current year is compared with the previous years or base year and it is represented in the form of percentage. It is useful because it helps the management to gain understanding of the strength and weakness of the organization[7]. It is also known as dynamic analysis because it is based on the financial data of various years. The horizontal analysis of the company is given below: Trend Analysis of Income Statement As on 30 June Particulars 2013 2014 2015 2016 % increase in 2014 % increase in 2015 % increase in 2016 Income from Operation 143772 174979 187350 205297 22% 7% 10% Expenses 133600 170039 182174 175934 27% 7% -3% Profit from Operation before other income and finance cost 10172 4940 15176 29363 -51% 207% 93% Other Income 3655 3162 9881 3758 -13% 212% -62% Profit before finance cost 13827 8102 25057 33121 -41% 209% 32% Finance cost 2 36 465 461 1700% 1192% -1% Profit from operating activity 13825 8066 24592 32660 -42% 205% 33% Tax Expense 5109 2924 8779 11357 -43% 200% 29% Net Profit 8716 5142 15813 21303 -41% 208% 35% EPS 26.75 15.78 48.53 65.38 -41% 208% 35% Table 1: Trend Analysis (Source: created by author) The table above shows the horizontal or trend analysis of the company PG. The trend is calculated by taking the figures of the previous year as the base.On analyzing the table it can be seen that income from operations have increased by 22% in the year 2014. In 2015 it has increased by7% and in 2016 it has increased by 10%. Therefore it can be said that there was a significant increase in the income from operation in the year 2014 but after that the growth in income has become marginal.In 2014 expenses has increased by 27% whereas in 2015 there was only 7% increase in expenses. The positive development was that in 2016 the expenses as has decreased by 3% as comrade to the previous years. In the year 2014 there was a significant decline in profit by 51%. However the situation improved in the year 2015 and 2016 as the profit has increased by 207% and 93% respectively[8]. Therefore it can be said that the performance of the company in year 2015 improved significantly as compared to the previous year. In the year 2014 there was significant increase in finance caused by 1700% and in the year 2015 it increased by 1192%. This shows that there have been high use of debt in the capital structure that is used for financing the project. The increased use of debt has increased the finance cost of the company. In 2016 there has been decline of 1% in the finance cost of the company. Though it is insignificant but it may mark reversal of the trend. In 2014 as the profit declined in the same proportion the earning per share of the company also declined by 41% in 2014. The EPS increased by 208% in the year 2015. In 2016 also the EPS has increased. The increased EPS is a positive sign because it indicates higher return for the investors. Trend Analysis of the Financial Position As on 30 June Assets 2013 2014 2015 2016 % increase in 2014 % increase in 2015 % increase in 2016 Non-Current Assets Tangible Assets 17021 17263 21931 27396 1% 27% 25% Differed Tax assets 788 1458 85% Capital Work in progress 2978 6084 104% -100% Long term Loans and Advance 10148 12379 14529 16234 22% 17% 12% Total Noncurrent Assets 30147 35726 37248 45088 19% 4% 21% Current Assets Inventories 23973 23055 20157 24455 -4% -13% 21% Trade Receivable 9270 9226 11676 10976 0% 27% -6% Cash and Bank 16682 16961 18125 53720 2% 7% 196% Short term loan 21831 19758 25065 5000 -9% 27% -80% Other current assets 2000 680 8722 3168 -66% 1183% -64% Total Current Assets 73756 69680 83745 97319 -6% 20% 16% Total Assets 103903 105406 120993 142407 1% 15% 18% Equity and Liabilities Shareholders fund 64923 64346 74234 85779 -1% 15% 16% Non-Current Liability deferred Tax Liability 640 235 -63% -100% Long term Liability 2 2 2 1 0% 0% -50% Long term Provision 150 216 293 354 44% 36% 21% Total Noncurrent Liability 792 453 295 355 -43% -35% 20% Current Liability Trade Payable 22367 25605 26801 32108 14% 5% 20% other liability 6534 5158 6287 9555 -21% 22% 52% Short term provisions 9287 9844 13376 14610 6% 36% 9% Total Current Liability 38188 40607 46464 56273 6% 14% 21% Total Equity and Liabilities 103903 105406 120993 142407 1% 15% 18% Table 2: Financial Position statement (Source: created by author) The table above shows the analysis of the trend of financial position of the company. The table demonstrates that the Tangible assets of the company increased significantly in the year 2015 and 2016. This indicates that the company is increasing theoperating capacity of the business. The long term loans and advances provided by the business increased by 22% in the 2014. Then after that the loans and advances forwarded by the company started declining. The inventories in the hands of the business declined in the year 2014 and 2015. This indicates that the most of the inventories has been sold or the purchase of excess stock has been reduced. However inventory in the year 2016 increased that represents that movement of the inventory reduced. The analysis shows that there has been significant increase in the value of the cash and bank in the year 2016. The loans provided by the company declined by 9% and 80% in the year 2014 and 2016 respectively. In 2015 the loan provided by the compan y increased by 27%. The trade payable of the company has increased in a consistent basis as provided in the table. The discussion above has shown that on performing the Horizontal analysis of the company the financial performance of the company can be easily ascertained. This analysis of the financial performance forms an important component in making the investment decision of the company. The risk profile measures the willingness of the company to take risk and face threats that the company is exposed to. In order to mitigate threats and potential risks the company the organization uses a risk profile or risk management technique. The risk profile determines the level of risk that an organization is willing to accept. It is also helps in determining the effect that risk has on the overall strategic decision of the company. The risk profile is important for every organization because it helps in reducing the risk. It should be remembered that failing to control the risk can have an adverse effect on the performance of the company[9]. The PG has analyzed the risk faced by the company and has adopted a risk management policy. The aim of the risk management policy was to create a structure that is efficient and of high standard. This structure should be used for identifying and mitigating potential risk that the company can face. The company has structured its meeting in such a manner that it can be used for planning, assessing and mitigating the risk of the company. This is achieved by conducting meeting on a bi monthly basis. The company has a risk management committee that has adopted the risk manage policy. The risk management policy adopted by the company is in tune with the guideline of the company to mitigate risks. The company has adopted competition response model program for addressing the business risks faced by the company. In order mitigate the financing risk the company has developed a robust legal and operational contingency plan. In case of important vendors and natural disaster the company hasdevelopeda business contingency plan. The company has also taken adequate insurance coverage of the assets to protect the value of the assets.It can be seen that the company has developed an overall risk management plan to ensure that the risk faced by the company is minimized. Optimal Capital structure The optimal capital structure of the company is the best debt equity ratio that maximizes the value of the business. It is said that the capital structure is at its optimum position if there is a perfect balance between the debt and capital of the business. In this level the cost of capital of the company is minimum. The balance is important to maintain because the debt has low cost as it is tax deductible but the risk is high. On the other hand the capital are less risky but the cost of equity is the highest. Therefore it is important to maintain a balance between the cost and risk in determining the capital structure of the business[10]. On analysis of the capital structure of the company it can be seen that the company does not have any long term debts or debentures. This means that the business relies only on shareholders fund for long term investment. This will lead to increase in costof capital the company. Therefore company should introduce debt in the capital structure for re ducing the cost of capital of the company. Dividend Policy The dividend policy can be said to be the guideline that helps the business to determine the proportion of earning it will distribute as dividend. The decision on the amount of dividend depends on the available investments. It is argued by many that the investors are not affected by the dividend policy of the business and they will realize cash by promotion of the shares of the company. This theory is known as dividend irrelevant theory. There are others those argues that dividends are relevant and have manner on the share price of the company. This theory is known as dividend relevance theory. The company has paid dividend during the years in 2013 the dividend paid by the company is 15, 2014 is 15, 2015 it is 15 and in 2016 the dividend payment is 20. Valuation of the Business The dividend discount model is a process for valuing business. It is calculated by predicting dividends and discounting them into present value. If it is seen that the value of the business obtained is higher than the current market price of the shares then it means that the company is undervalued. The formula is given below: Value of the sharers= Dividend per share/ (Discount rate dividend growth rate) Growth Rate Particulars Amount Dividend in 2016 20 Dividend in 2013 15 Increase 5 % increase 33% Number of years 4 Average increase 8% Table 3: Growth rate (Source: created by author) Value of the stock Particulars Amount Dividend per share 21.67 Discount rate 10% Dividend growth rate 8% Value of the stock 1300 Table 4: Value of the stock (Source: created by author) The calculation above reflects that the value of the stock is 1300. The existing market price of the share is 4220. This means that the company is overvalued. Conclusion Based on the above analysis it can be seen that the company is performing with responsibility. The financial performance of the company is analyzed and it can be seen that the business has performed effectively. The capital structure shows that the business does not uses debt financing. The company has also adopted an adequate risk management techniques. The valuation of the business shows the company is overvalued. However as the overall performance of company has been more than satisfactory so it is expected that the value of the business will be higher. Based on the above analysis it can be recommended that the investors should invest in PG. Reference Blackwood, B, QlikView for finance. in , 1st ed. Clardy, A, "A General Framework for Performance Management Systems: Structure, Design, and Analysis". in Performance Improvement, 52, 2013, 5-15. in Pg.com, , 2017, https://www.pg.com/en_IN/invest/gillette/shareholder_services.shtml [accessed 3 February 2017]. Kadan, O F Liu, "Performance evaluation with high moments and disaster risk". in Journal of Financial Economics, 113, 2014, 131-155. Koshkina, O, P Issakhova, A Issakhova, "The Model of Financila Instruments Influence on the Capital Flow in Kazakhstan". in Review of European Studies, 7, 2015. 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